End Of The PC Business As We Know It?

[ComputerDave]

I apologize in advance if this posting is in the inappropriate area, please advise on where it should be to obtain the greatest exposure, as I believe it is certainly an important topic.


Some people might call this paranoia, I call it trying to prepare myself for what looks like could be the inevitable. The end of the PC repair business as we know it.

I don't want to be like the man who delivered ice for a living. He raised his family on the belief that his vocation was secure. He bought a house, lived well, slept well at night. When someone told him that refrigeration would take over the world and make him obsolete, his rose colored glasses prevented him from seeing the truth. "That will never catch on, they'll always be a need for ice." Slowly the man lost his business, of course. I don't want to be like that, but truthfully, I'm scared.

I started out repairing computers in my bedroom on a fold away table. I did three at a time. Apparently we've made some good decisions because four years later we have a successful business with a shop, work on up to 20 at a time, a showroom and two other technicians that work along side with me. Between the year 2009 and 2010, we grew 32%, bottom line. Now, it seems our residential business is leveling off. It seems that everyone that comes in is using the word iPad in a sentence.

I don't know how to change, but it seems that tablets are going to replace the majority of our business. I see tablets becoming a throw away item, kind of like the a cell phone. Tablet's become mainstream, the price drops, and when something goes wrong with it you just toss it. I want to change so I don't end up like the ice man, just not sure how.

Case in point. Take this article from Forbes.

Now CTO for IBM Middle East and Africa, Dean wrote, “It may be odd for me to say this, but I’m also proud IBM decided to leave the personal computer business in 2005, selling our PC division to Lenovo. While many in the tech industry questioned IBM’s decision to exit the business at the time, it’s now clear that our company was in the vanguard of the post-PC era.

Dean’s blog post continued: “I, personally, have moved beyond the PC as well. My primary computer now is a tablet. When I helped design the PC, I didn’t think I’d live long enough to witness its decline. But, while PCs will continue to be much-used devices, they’re no longer at the leading edge of computing. They’re going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs.”


I don't know, I just wanted to express my deepest darkest fears with a group of people whom are in the same business as I am and see what happens. I'm incredibly open to any input. Laughter and reticule, positive reinforcement, advice, common experiences. Anything. Is anyone else thinking like me?

Yes, I know at least for the foreseeable future, large businesses and gamers and going to stay with the PC, but that accounts for a "very" small portion of the pie.

Thanks in advance for any and all insight.

David

 

[Encrypted Existence]

Tablets are no doubt becoming more and more mainstream. My Father is a sales executive for Fedex and they are getting ready to get rid of their laptops and switch to ipads. I think your fears and concerns are totally legit. I also know that one thing that makes me a good tech, even though I don't know a whole heck of a lot and I am just getting started are the facts that I am always willing to learn and I adapt to change well. Our skills are going to need to evolve as new mainstream technology surfaces. I believe all will be well as long as you "keep it movin" and stay up to date with new technology. No doubt ipads will need fixing from time to time just like any other computer and as far as I know the malware writers out there target whatever is popular so there will surely be a business for malware removal on the ipad. I embrace the change. I hope you will as well.

 

[johnrobert]

I have been in this business for 15 and I can tell you I have seen a decline, people are more knowledgeable after 20 years of computing and it getting easier, I remember doing networking long before routers were mainstream, people were baffled by a driver, or a software install.
I think it will be slow but it’s definitely coming
When I started there weren’t many people doing this, seems like everybody and there dog is doing it, I have to hussle much harder for a crust.
Look at the change in the past few years, how prices have come down, who is going to fix a laptop when you can buy new for $250
Everything is moving exponentially

 

[joydivision]

This is partly why I am going back to college in January to learn the basics of adult teaching and going to steer my business in that direction.

I have been busy lately, and people will always need help with technology BUT there is more competition and less work around. Pads won't fully replace PCs for a long time.

Certainly if you only do hardware repairs then your days are numbered, thankfully hardware is just a small part of business. Doing a lot more businesses lately too.

Most the work I was doing a year ago now only makes up 35% of my total work, I find it is a lot more varied now, and even done a few call outs to get peoples Ipads connected to their wireless networks

I know somebody that recently bought a brand new laptop for £350, I was shocked when I discovered it wasn't some crappy Celeron, but an i3 2100m! How can we justify charging over £100 for a hard drive replacement on an old P4 when prices for jnew laptops are so cheap?

However remember our target customer wouldn't know how to migrate their old data onto the new one

 

[callthatgirl]

Watching the trends and staying current with what's going on and changing our business to match that will keep us alive. I don't fear losing the home users, still too many problems to work out with those idevices. I have seen our calls go up actually a bit with those users due to issues with email, networking connections and of course, hardware repairs. We are slowly now getting into it, all my techs will be trained by year on end on repairing them at each of our shops. I see no reason to not stay on top of that and as well, figure out what we are needed for...the ipad is too new to assume it will not be a larger part of our service line eventually, or all tablet type devices for that matter.

 

[Xander]

Anybody the link to that well-beaten thread that was started by Wheelie? Dozens of posts on this subject and I think it was re-beaten not that long ago.

 

[MobileTechie]

I think there will be a continued decline in business. Lots of things have gone this way - TVs, videos etc.

It's not just tablets but The Cloud too. Internet speeds just keep going up and so the viability of having almost all computing power in the the cloud is looming. At that point PCs are no more than thin terminals supplied possibly by the ISPs. Even if they're not then they'll be incredibly cheap with little to go wrong.

I think business computing might have more legs but there the cloud and outsourcing too has taken away a lot of business and jobs. The rates for IT Support staff are lower, in real terms, than 10 years ago and there are not so many jobs in the UK because so many firms don't even have a UK based data centre.

I'm not sure that everything will be disposable though. Manfacturers are very good at segmenting the market and producing products at the higher price levels to aspire too. I think people are happy to spend £500-£1500 on the latest tech and that leaves room for repair.

Also OSs are getting better and have more self-repair built in. 7 repairs several common startup problems that XP didn't so there are a lot of calls we don't get now. 8 adds even more power. Plus the Microsoft Fixits are pretty good tools for the end user to fix a range of common problems.

So overall I'd say that in the long-term the future is not overly bright for PC repair.

 

[ComputerDave]

Training

We are slowly now getting into it, all my techs will be trained by year on end on repairing them at each of our shops.

Thank you for your reply. How are you planning on going about that?

 

[ComputerDave]

This is partly why I am going back to college in January to learn the basics of adult teaching and going to steer my business in that direction.

So you're talking about hold classes to teach people how they are going to use this stuff. I've thought about the same thing, but wonder how effective one would be doing this unless it was on a one to one basis.

Certainly if you only do hardware repairs then your days are numbered, thankfully hardware is just a small part of business. Doing a lot more businesses lately too.

I agree. Seems to be the same here as well.

 

[ComputerDave]

Anybody the link to that well-beaten thread that was started by Wheelie? Dozens of posts on this subject and I think it was re-beaten not that long ago.

Thanks, I did the search and found it.

http://www.technibble.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20839&highlight=Wheelie

 

[joydivision]

I do home tuition anyway, but it is something I want to focus more on. My idea is structured courses for people that can afford it, and a lot of people will happily pay £200 or so for this.

It is six years since I left university, so I don't want to do anything to heavy but if I get on with the basic course and enjoy it, I may go on to a PGCE and then work as a lecturer, turning my business part time.

 

[FCONE]

Today we have iPads in a half dozen clients ranging from a Law Firm with one to a Municipality that has them for every department head as well as building inspectors.

At first I was deeply troubled about the Tablet market. Having done IT for almost twenty years I recall when folks started using Windows Mobile devices (The notebook replacement ones with tiny screens and keyboards not phone devices!), Pilots and eventually windows Tablets and windows UMPC. While none of these were truly a decent replacement for a good old windows based notebook (good in that they generated revenue) I could see companies were investing in a simpler replacement that would probably not be a money maker for our business.

I waited in line on day one and bought an iPad for myself and my business partner so we could see if see were finally going to see the device that began the death of the notebook computer. It did not take long for me to see is was indeed that product... My business partner thought I was insane until I showed him Office 2HD. I had copied hundreds of Office documents to it to show that everything I kept on my notebook was here at the tip of my fingers with zero boot time. I then logged into our Terminal Server. Then he too truly understood just how much of a game changer they would be.

The vast majority of business notebooks are (In my experience). Not used to create content but to access content. And the iPad is king when it comes to accessing content easily.

 

[ComputerDave]

I waited in line on day one and bought an iPad for myself and my business partner so we could see if see were finally going to see the device that began the death of the notebook computer.............. Then he too truly understood just how much of a game changer they would be.

The vast majority of business notebooks are (In my experience). Not used to create content but to access content. And the iPad is king when it comes to accessing content easily.

I agree. So what are your plans on dealing with this? Are you planning on trying to become a reseller?

 

[gazza]

The problem is there is so much information available on the WWW that you really don't need to train clients or customers in anything anymore, just got to youtube and you can get training videos on anything you can think of.

I have actually seen a big increase in the number of residential jobs I do because households have gone from having one computer to having multiple desktops and laptops, however while the margins I used to make on a individual repair have decrease my volume of repairs have actually increased.

I can understand sales reps and business etc moving to tablets, iPods etc but the laptop and desktop are here to stay purely because not everyone wants to work on such a small landscape.

 

[ComputerDave]

Thank you to everyone

I just wanted to sincerely thank everyone whom responded to my posting, especially in light of the fact that the topic had been covered in depth previously on the following thread.

http://www.technibble.com/forums/sho...hlight=Wheelie

All of your feedback has been very beneficial, enlightening and is deeply appreciated.

I’ve been giving a lot of thought as to what I would do in a “doomsday scenario” where there did not exist enough work to sustain our current operation. The question becomes: “What would one do with a tech room that’s set up for ten desktops and ten notebooks, and a showroom?”
And I’m going to be a little sarcastic here, what do we do (in a worst case scenario)? Open a flower shop?

 

[Majestic]

Honestly, Yes things are changing but I don't think the pc is going the way of the do-do bird anytime soon. We all have to adapt to survive. That said, I'm not sure that even a bluetooth keyboard connected to an Ipad or any other Tablet will replace a real computer in an office anytime soon. From what I've seen more and more people are getting macbooks everyday and I've had to learn to support Mac in general. This also includes Iphones, Ipads and Android devices.

The real money in this business is in offices. Perhaps I'm being naive but I can not imagine even in the near future an office solely using tablets. Some of the companies I support are design firms whom need VERY powerful computers that can be expanded, upgraded in the future when they have the need. The problem with these devices is that in most cases they are quite limited in terms of expansion in terms of both memory and raw processor power.

There could be a time where consumers are only using tablets, but offices? I doubt it unless it's a particular situation.

Just my 2 cents..

Majestic

 

[Mushin]

Well.... I see training and classes as an option.

Or a dedicated remote support operations center.
Or a Gaming center.
Or a cloud computing center for business travelers.
Or switch or providing outsourced help desk support.

I just go where the opportunites are.

 

[RemoteGeek]

This same topic was covered here also:

http://www.technibble.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30207

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

I apologize in advance if this posting is in the inappropriate area, please advise on where it should be to obtain the greatest exposure, as I believe it is certainly an important topic.


Some people might call this paranoia, I call it trying to prepare myself for what looks like could be the inevitable. The end of the PC repair business as we know it.

I don't want to be like the man who delivered ice for a living. He raised his family on the belief that his vocation was secure. He bought a house, lived well, slept well at night. When someone told him that refrigeration would take over the world and make him obsolete, his rose colored glasses prevented him from seeing the truth. "That will never catch on, they'll always be a need for ice." Slowly the man lost his business, of course. I don't want to be like that, but truthfully, I'm scared.

I started out repairing computers in my bedroom on a fold away table. I did three at a time. Apparently we've made some good decisions because four years later we have a successful business with a shop, work on up to 20 at a time, a showroom and two other technicians that work along side with me. Between the year 2009 and 2010, we grew 32%, bottom line. Now, it seems our residential business is leveling off. It seems that everyone that comes in is using the word iPad in a sentence.

I don't know how to change, but it seems that tablets are going to replace the majority of our business. I see tablets becoming a throw away item, kind of like the a cell phone. Tablet's become mainstream, the price drops, and when something goes wrong with it you just toss it. I want to change so I don't end up like the ice man, just not sure how.

Case in point. Take this article from Forbes.

Now CTO for IBM Middle East and Africa, Dean wrote, “It may be odd for me to say this, but I’m also proud IBM decided to leave the personal computer business in 2005, selling our PC division to Lenovo. While many in the tech industry questioned IBM’s decision to exit the business at the time, it’s now clear that our company was in the vanguard of the post-PC era.

Dean’s blog post continued: “I, personally, have moved beyond the PC as well. My primary computer now is a tablet. When I helped design the PC, I didn’t think I’d live long enough to witness its decline. But, while PCs will continue to be much-used devices, they’re no longer at the leading edge of computing. They’re going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs.”


I don't know, I just wanted to express my deepest darkest fears with a group of people whom are in the same business as I am and see what happens. I'm incredibly open to any input. Laughter and reticule, positive reinforcement, advice, common experiences. Anything. Is anyone else thinking like me?

Yes, I know at least for the foreseeable future, large businesses and gamers and going to stay with the PC, but that accounts for a "very" small portion of the pie.

Thanks in advance for any and all insight.

David

Hi David,

I remember when my dad went to training with RCA for tech color training. We had a TV store and sold these enormous pieces of furniture with tv's in them. It was the first color TV's in the 60's. That business has changed but no one is willing to live without color tv. There are even a few TV dealers around. Today those who survived got into music and surround sound in a big way and their average sale is $30k including whole house cabling.

If you consider yourself in the pc business than it is going to be hard but if you consider yourself in the technology business you might find it a bit easier to negotiate the future. Some day I will be setting up the tcp/ip in the refrigerator which will send you an email, groceries list, to your smart phone, so you can forward it to the drive threw grocery store to pick up on the way home. At the same time your home network will keep the house a few degrees off to save energy until your smart phone automatically emails the home server to tell it you are enroute home,then it comes to full temperature for your comfort and starts your hot water heater to clean the dishes after dinner. You might even be able to preheat the oven.

I look at my customers and I realize that there is no way in hell these people are going to be able to survive the coming technology without me. I hate it but they call me to setup their tv's, surround sound, blueray as it is. It is almost to the point where my average house technology call is as much as my network server/router clients. If I promoted it I am sure I could have many $1000 service chg setups but I am not yet that comfortable with it. We are just now moving to support iphone, ipod, ipad, smartphones and such. I took on laptop component repair about 4-5 years ago and we would be in bad shape if we avoided laptop repair any longer. I am late to the ipod/ipad game.

Our biggest asset is not our knowledge of technology today but the ability and willingness to quickly learn and integrate IT tomorrow. We all should visit Las vegas once or twice a year to the electronics show even before we attend a computer/network or security conventions.

I worried as the average cost of a pc went from $3000 to $1000 and worried that I would be out of business and missed growth opportunities because of my fear but each year my services increased so that my net profits are higher not lower than when I relied on hardware sales.

 

[smmirza]

Tell you the truth, my client have had zero interest in PC repair. I quickly retooled and got into Web design with PC on the side. I don't know but no one is biting on the PC repair bait...