Covid Vaccination(s) and those getting what's most likely the BA.5 variant

[lcoughey]

I have a spreadsheet where I enter each week's totals, subtract, make a graph and post to show the 1 week numbers so that the accurately reflect reality.

 

[nlinecomputers]

I have a spreadsheet where I enter each week's totals, subtract, make a graph and post to show the 1 week numbers so that the accurately reflect reality.

Week’s totals from where? Link to the source you collect this data from.

 

[Markverhyden]

Calling it what it is doesn't degrade its danger. The ages that have negative impacts for COVID infection are just as likely to have a larger problem with any of the viruses that cause a common cold too. My grandmother died from a cold for crying out loud... These things happen. Viral infections are never a "joke" or to be taken lightly.

Exactly. The groups at highest risk of dying after being infected with COVID as also the same groups that at highest risk of dying from many other transmissible diseases.

 

[britechguy]

at highest risk of dying from many other transmissible diseases.

That do not generally include "the common cold." There is a reason that there are not annual tallies of deaths from colds and it's because they are just incredibly rare and when they do occur it's generally impossible to rule out the role(s) of comorbidities.

Calling COVID a cold is just plain stupid.

 

[lcoughey]

I get the numbers from this site every week. https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/

They update the cases by vaccination status on Wednesdays and the cases, hospitalizations, ICU & deaths on Fridays. I've been tracking the vaccination splits since they started reporting them in July 2021 and the age splits since I noticed them at the end of December 2021.

This graph shown on the government website only shows the totals, not reflecting on the fact that during a good portion of the time, the majority of people were unvaccinated...and as it is only recent that boosters were released, and not for all, you'd expect to see the graph look like this. But, it doesn't give an accurate reflection of the effectiveness of the shots.



This is the same graph, just changing it from the actual numbers to percentages. If you use these graphs to make your determination for getting vaccinated or boostered, you are being mislead.4



As Canada recently chanced how they classify vaccination status and now clump anyone before they are cosidered doubled vaccinated (unvaccinated, single vaccinated and double vaccinated before 2 weeks) as unvaccinated, this is the start of a new page to accomodate for the changes.



So, when we generate a graphs by doing basic subtraction of the previous week's numbers, we get a clear picture of how effective the vaccines were for that week. I included the weekly numbers for the percentage of the population for each vaccinations status for reference too. The thing that is clear is that 48% of the population has either 1 or 2 boosters and account for 70% of the cases, 62% of the hospitalizations and 69% of the deaths.



As a bonus, here is a clip from the Ontario (Canada's) medical health officer announcing more boosters last week.

And here are the Canadian numbers based on age groups...left are the totals since the beginning of covid while the right are the numbers for the week. Take special attention to the fact that the only deaths reported for the under 50 was in the 30-39 where it looks to be a correction where it is a -2. I'm not sure if that is because they incorrectly reported 2 people dead that didn't die or if there was a resurrection, either way, it is very clear that this virus is only a concern for the elderly and those with serious underlying health issues.



Sorry, I did not intend on getting this deep into it, but didn't want to leave the question unanswered either. I believe that everyone has the right to make their own informed decisions about the covid shots, but I'm very annoyed that they are not being provided with accurate information to make those decisions.

And here is one more in reponse to the effectiveness of masks.

Okay...now I'm done.

 

[alluseridsrejected]

No vaccine for me. Have not had been sick at all. Same for my wife, daughter and grandkids. We are all unvaxed and none of us have had Covid. Both my parents and sisters are all vaxxed and boosted and all have had Covid multiple times. I never masked or stopped working and never just stayed at home. Continued all my regular tasks throughout the pandemic with the exception of restaurants which were all closed. Met every Sunday at church throughout the pandemic. Attendance was down from around 150 to 75-100, but we were always there and (thank God) never had any affects. I did not take the vaccine because we were clearly lied to by the government and media and so called fact checkers when they claimed it was not gene therapy when it clearly was.

 

[Sky-Knight]

To pull this back on topic, and away from conspiracies and cherry picked hand made data sources...

Why the Omicron offshoot BA.5 is a big deal | CNN

Once again, Covid-19 seems to be everywhere. If you feel caught off-guard, you aren't alone.

www.cnn.com

Now, CNN isn't my favorite news source... BUT...

This article clearly outlines how COVID evades our immune response. Natural or vaccinated immune response to COVID focuses on the spike protein present on the virus. So it just makes a new one. BA.4 being Omicron, and BA.5 being the conspiracy fuel it is does nothing more than behave exactly as predicted. This is an RNA virus, it mutates extremely rapidly, like a Common Cold... because that's what it is... You get it, and six months later the immunity you earned suffering from it is worthless. Worse every time you get it, it seems your odds of getting long COVID go up.

Article also indicates BA.4 and BA.5 formulations will be part of the COVID vaccinations available, but not until this Fall. Almost a year behind when we need it. Which is also to be expected given the nature of how vaccines are made and tested. We're always behind on this cat and mouse game. Which is why this thing is so terrible, we don't really have the technology to stop it, it spreads like wildfire, and we have people too stupid to actually act intelligently. Controlling an infectious agent like this isn't terribly hard, but it is extremely annoying. As any parent knows, assuming they've been able to contain the crud one of their kids brought home from school.

With or without medical intervention the species will survive. Though it's apparent we're going to be missing a ton of our elderly. The question really boils down to how many of these losses we're going to take. We get to choose.

Now for those that want a real source: https://www.cuimc.columbia.edu/news...s-better-evading-vaccines-antibody-treatments

Says all the same stuff, paper it's based on isn't published yet, peer review is years away, but at least it's referenced.

TLDR, having COVID before never was going to prevent you from getting it again. Being vaccinated does help, but not as much as anyone wants.

 

[YeOldeStonecat]

Like most things here...we're going to have opposing camps (opinions).
Those that will keep vaxed up....and those who won't. Could say three camps...adding "those who gave vaxing a chance...but now don't believe it".that's the camp I'm in.

...and no minds will be changed.

I still practice good hygiene....and I'm not talking about washing my butt or brushing my teeth, I'm talking about constantly washing my hands, and when walking out in public, I am aware of keeping a bit more distance with strangers....and when I see elderly, I do intentionally make a wider path around them..and even hold my breath as I walk past. If I see someone wearing a mask (and I don't)....I still respect their choice, and I also try to keep a wider path around them....to be respectful of their choice...as it would likely bother them if a non mask wearing like myself walked right up to them face to face...or at least brushed shoulders walking by.

I believe this will be around for a while, and those at higher risk...we all need to be aware of, and cautious around.

 

[britechguy]

Like most things here...we're going to have opposing camps (opinions).

But, and it is a critical but, all opinions are not equal. Those based on data, particularly peer-reviewed scientific data, win hands down. And not just about Covid, either.

And on those many occasions where there are gaps, I'll trust subject matter experts over "Bob down the street" in all cases.

 

[YeOldeStonecat]

But, and it is a critical but, all opinions are not equal. Those based on data, particularly peer-reviewed scientific data, win hands down. And not just about Covid, either.

And on those many occasions where there are gaps, I'll trust subject matter experts over "Bob down the street" in all cases.

I agree...no argument here. Ya know the old adage......"Opinions are like...."

 

[nlinecomputers]

Mind you, I'm not saying otherwise.

But just remember that variants/mutations do not always march in the direction of weaker (though in terms of virulence of illness these newer ones are, but they're more infectious by far). I just hope that the march toward "more infectious and weaker" continues so that we ultimately reach the point where Covid-19, in the commonly circulating forms, will actually be nothing more than one of many common colds. And as you say, we're definitely not there yet, even with this variant, if you look at the stats on hospitalizations.

Generally, they DO get weaker. SImply because weaker is easier to spread and thus the virus survives. Too strong and you kill off all of your potential infectees or they isolate themselves enough that the virus can't spread. The common cold spreads so easily in part because many people still go to work or school while suffering from a cold. They feel bad but not so bad to stay home in bed. So the virus spreads easier because it isn't as severe as say COVID. Evolution favors those that can spread the easiest.

 

[Sky-Knight]

Yep, the evolutionary process selects based on propagation and no other factors.

That being said, there are times when a virus mutates to become deadly after it becomes endemic... Those are Mother Nature's middle finger flying. At this point, if SARS-COV2 is going to do that, there's nothing we can do to stop it anyway.

And those that don't react quickly enough to protect themselves would remove themselves from the population and no longer be an issue for the rest of us in short order.

But that's not terribly likely to happen. What's more likely to happen is we keep this virus around that doesn't really hurt the young, but really hurts the old in effect reducing our longevity. The silly part is that too is helpful for our species for many reasons.

But all of this is why I keep calling COVID what it is... a COLD. People need to understand that, because that's how it spreads, and that's the level of work required to contain it. It's not a Flu, it's a COLD.

Good luck stopping it if your crotch goblins bring it home...

I'd have to run the numbers, but I'm pretty sure I've got better odds of dying in a car wreck getting to a job site than I am from COVID at this point.

 

[TJHE]

And in my extended circle there are vaccination refusers who are far more solitary, and most have avoided getting Covid, and some others who cannot be so due to the nature of their work, and they did contract Covid, and did long before now.

My brother, who was then a cop (now retired), got it even before the vaccines were commonly available and has certain long covid symptoms, particularly issues with smell and taste, that you'd not think would "rock your world" until the pleasures that come with eating and drinking are suddenly snatched away.

All I can say is that I have yet to know someone who was vaccinated who's ended up hospitalized (and that includes myself), and if all the vaccine does is prevent me from getting the degree of Covid symptoms that force me into a hospital and, possibly, on to a ventilator then it is, in my estimation, a massive success. I just entered (age-wise) the high-risk demographic on my last birthday, but my partner has been well-into that age demographic even before Covid hit. Right now we both have the same head/chest cold combined with allergies like symptoms, along with reduced sense of taste/smell in the last day or two, and nothing seems to be intensifying so we're waiting it out, in isolation, until it's over and we test negative again.

I fully support the "vaccination was a success".
We have a vaccination percentage over 92% in Denmark and dropped the last restrictions January 1, 2022 as hospitalizations were dropping rapidly through December after vaccinations, even with high infection numbers.

Since then the first Omicron has rushed through Denmark with really high infection numbers January to March but only resulting in 2000 additional Covid related deaths (90% being +70 years and with other conditions)

In general Denmark (opposed to other european countries) haven't had a substantial increase in deaths.

Graphs and maps

www.euromomo.eu

When comparing to Hong Kong (similar population size) where people did not bother to get vaccinated (12%)
- because of quarantines they had really low infection numbers and people therefore didn't bother..
When Omicron hit they failed to contain it and had +9000 deaths in 6 weeks!

And they are having another wave coming

Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hong Kong Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[lcoughey]

Since then the first Omicron has rushed through Denmark with really high infection numbers January to March but only resulting in 2000 additional Covid related deaths (90% being +70 years and with other conditions)

I assume Denmark isn't that much different than Canada when it comes to the ages of poeple dying every year for any cause. As you can see with the following graph showing the Canadian death counts by age group for the years 2016-2020




Now compare that graph to the two graphs at the bottom of the following graphs. The left reflects the totals shown on the Canadian govenment's website (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/), updated every Friday. The right reflects the weekly numbers by calculating the difference between the numbers posted each week. Either way, the curve of the death graphs are pretty much the same between those below and those above.



And, as to the success of the vaccines, here are this week's numbers posted this morning. The best argument one might have is that the fully vaxxed with just 2 doses are slightly better off than the unvaxxed, yet that doesn't take into consideration that the unvaxxed have 0% risk of any of the side effects. The number now being thrown around by the Ontario public health minister is 1 in 5000 are at risk of myocarditis.



It should also be noted that Canada has pushed every who is not double vaccinated (after 2 weeks), as unvaccinated. So, those with single shots and even 2 shots are considered unvaxxinated until 2 weeks after the 2nd shot.

 

[britechguy]

Another reason to do whatever you can to avoid Covid, although this is a rare post-Covid symptom: Seizures.

My partner suffered the a series of 2 seizures early Monday morning, and there is no family history whatsoever. And you seldom develop seizure disorder in your 70s without something that triggers them.

I thought this theory had to be grasping at straws, until I did a web search and found a number of very reputable sources stating that seizure activity is known to occur post-Covid and seems to be tied to the virus:

Post-COVID seizure: A new feature of "long-COVID" - PubMed​

COVID-19 and seizures: Is there a link? - PubMed​

Can COVID-19 Cause Seizures? - Cleveland Clinic​

Strokes, seizures, brain fog and other neurological effects of COVID-19​

and there are plenty more.

Of all the things I might have anticipated, this was not on my list! And now, for very good reason, he cannot drive for 6 months and that definitely throws a major monkey wrench into the gears of both of our lives.

 

[lcoughey]

Another reason to do whatever you can to avoid Covid, although this is a rare post-Covid symptom: Seizures.

My partner suffered the a series of 2 seizures early Monday morning, and there is no family history whatsoever. And you seldom develop seizure disorder in your 70s without something that triggers them.

I thought this theory had to be grasping at straws, until I did a web search and found a number of very reputable sources stating that seizure activity is known to occur post-Covid and seems to be tied to the virus:

Post-COVID seizure: A new feature of "long-COVID" - PubMed​

COVID-19 and seizures: Is there a link? - PubMed​

Can COVID-19 Cause Seizures? - Cleveland Clinic​

Strokes, seizures, brain fog and other neurological effects of COVID-19​

and there are plenty more.

Of all the things I might have anticipated, this was not on my list! And now, for very good reason, he cannot drive for 6 months and that definitely throws a major monkey wrench into the gears of both of our lives.

That really sucks. I hope they have a quick recovery.

Just a quick question about your partner to help us have a clearer picture. Can you confirm whether or not he was vaccinated?

 

[britechguy]

We were both vaccinated and boostered. BA.5 is getting around the vaccines, though they are resulting in greatly minimized symptoms. We both had only "cold-like" symptoms and his were actually less severe than mine. But he's 17 years older, and that does make a difference in any one of a number of ways.

We've both been blessed with extremely good health throughout our lives, with rare exceptions like this one.

 

[labtech]

@lcoughey I haven't confused anything, I'm just reliant on a trusted data source and not a random Tweet. I have no clue where you got those images, and the pretty charts simply do not concern me. They're utterly without value in this context. Give me a link to the raw data.

I've looked at several sites that report data from Canada, one was run by the government itself and I do not see the data you're referencing. So if you can point me at it, I'll happily take a look at it.

At this point, literally 90%, if not more, of Northen America population has been exposed and gotten infected by CV19, vaccinated or not.
Here is a chart off the CDC website that is not running in the main stream media (scroll to the bottom to see the chart and within the chart, look at the bottom of the chart itself for the 3 dotted lines that are easy to miss): https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff
Chart explained step by step here:

 

[TJHE]

At this point, literally 90%, if not more, of Northen America population has been exposed and gotten infected by CV19, vaccinated or not.
Here is a chart off the CDC website that is not running in the main stream media (scroll to the bottom to see the chart and within the chart, look at the bottom of the chart itself for the 3 dotted lines that are easy to miss): https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff
Chart explained step by step here:

That is solid. And it shows two things clearly:
1. Vaccines does make a major difference on the ones not previously infected (~30 times higher risk of hospitalization)
2. You can just as well avoid getting a vaccine if you previously did have Corona.

 

[britechguy]

That is solid. And it shows two things clearly:
1. Vaccines does make a major difference on the ones not previously infected (~30 times higher risk of hospitalization)
2. You can just as well avoid getting a vaccine if you previously did have Corona.

And it's point #1 that is the primary reason to get vaccinated if you have not been. Vaccines are not, contrary to popular myth, only supposed to prevent infection (though, ideally, that's precisely the best result) but also to reduce severity of illness if infection occurs.

I don't agree with your point #2, as it would depend entirely on when you had a Covid infection. Although the severity of illness for both myself and my partner was minimal, we both had been vaccinated and boostered, which marshals the same immune response as a natural infection and sometimes a stronger one. That wasn't enough to keep us from getting what we believe to be BA.5. It's no fun to have to isolate yourself for at least 5 days, and for us it was between 8 and 10, because we don't want to give this to anyone else (period) and particularly to anyone who may not have been able to be vaccinated. When the fall vaccine version comes out, unless the statement is that it "ends" with the spike protein pattern for the current two BA variants of the Omicron strain, we'll both be getting boostered then.

Ignoring the seizures (which is actually something that most who've ever been infected can likely do) it's still not fun to have the brakes put on your life for a week to two weeks, along with having yet another round of cold-like symptoms, if I can avoid both with a shot. These latest variants are not the end of the line, and I suspect Covid management from a public health perspective is going to morph into the same protocol as flu management. For those of us "of a certain age" it's just not worth risking illness if we can at least try to avoid it.