Non-computer Corona virus thread

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I'd dearly love to be wrong about this. I think most of you are in denial about how bad it's going to be, and I really hope you're actually right.

It's not just going to be the number of deaths. I'm not sure what to search with to find the links, but Washington state is putting together official guidelines that physicians will be able to use to prioritize access to ventilators so the physicians won't be in the position of deciding who's going to die. What's the psychological impact going to be on doctors who have to make those decisions on their own? "Today I decided which 5 people were going to be allowed to die without even a chance at survival. Tomorrow it's probably going to be 10 more." That's going to be devastating for doctors in the US healthcare system which in part is so expensive because there's a very definite "we can save this person by throwing money at the problem" attitude. Oncologists, cardiologists, docs seeing a ton of nursing home patients, they may have to make those decisions regularly. A lot of the docs who are going to be involved here aren't used to it.

That's ignoring all the medical providers (docs, nurses, techs, everyone) who are going to catch this very acutely very fast due to high exposure and no equipment. I'm very scared for my sister, who's an ER nurse in Portland, Oregon.
 
The problem being, that so far there is very limited evidence that invasive ventilation has any beneficial effect.

We are panicking about not having enough ventilators when, so far, they seem to have very little effect on the mortality rate. (See the Lancet article I cited.)

I am not belittling either the psychological or other tolls of this pandemic. But we're definitely not acting rationally on the whole, and that does no one any good, either in the short or longer runs.
 
fencepost said:
I'd dearly love to be wrong about this. I think most of you are in denial about how bad it's going to be, and I really hope you're actually right.

It's not just going to be the number of deaths. I'm not sure what to search with to find the links, but Washington state is putting together official guidelines that physicians will be able to use to prioritize access to ventilators so the physicians won't be in the position of deciding who's going to die. What's the psychological impact going to be on doctors who have to make those decisions on their own? "Today I decided which 5 people were going to be allowed to die without even a chance at survival. Tomorrow it's probably going to be 10 more." That's going to be devastating for doctors in the US healthcare system which in part is so expensive because there's a very definite "we can save this person by throwing money at the problem" attitude. Oncologists, cardiologists, docs seeing a ton of nursing home patients, they may have to make those decisions regularly. A lot of the docs who are going to be involved here aren't used to it.

That's ignoring all the medical providers (docs, nurses, techs, everyone) who are going to catch this very acutely very fast due to high exposure and no equipment. I'm very scared for my sister, who's an ER nurse in Portland, Oregon.
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My oldest niece is an RN, and I have a good friend who's a nurse as well. While I am concerned about them I also understand they're doing exactly what they want to be doing. It's what gets them up in the morning.

As for the seeming apathy of some, if/when things start getting close to home perceptions often change. Those of us in a highly vulnerable group seem to be taking it more seriously than those who aren't in some cases. Not all, but some. I think it's actually a normal human trait. Our sense of danger isn't as stimulated when the crosshairs are on someone else. We also tend to play the odds, and as long as we perceive the odds to be in our favor we also tend to perceive the threat to be minimal as well.

If the steps taken domestically prove to be effective and the deaths remain comparatively low, many will claim the threat was low all along. If they aren't effective and we see significant deaths domestically, many will claim the threat wasn't taken seriously enough. Yet, none of them will be the ones who must make the decisions and bear the responsibility for them.
 
britechguy said:
We are panicking about not having enough ventilators when, so far, they seem to have very little effect on the mortality rate.
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Absolutely true, and from what I've read if you've needed ventilation that's a good indicator that you're likely to have a lot of problems further down the line even if you do recover. That said, the US in the last 40+ years has always had a response of "try everything" to questions of even low-odds medical care, and anyone in a medical field attempting to advise otherwise gets met with "Death panels! Death panels! You're trying to kill us!" (insurance company "that's not covered" decisions exempt).
 
fencepost said:
Absolutely true, and from what I've read if you've needed ventilation that's a good indicator that you're likely to have a lot of problems further down the line even if you do recover. That said, the US in the last 40+ years has always had a response of "try everything" to questions of even low-odds medical care, and anyone in a medical field attempting to advise otherwise gets met with "Death panels! Death panels! You're trying to kill us!" (insurance company "that's not covered" decisions exempt).
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There are still a very great many in the medical field who do attempt to advise otherwise, because our codes of ethics absolutely require it, as does basic decency. I am a speech and language pathologist, not in current practice at the moment, and our code of ethics expressly forbids us to provide treatment that our clinical judgment tells us will not benefit the patient. To do so is considered completely unethical to the patient and also theft of resources (whether from insurance specifically or more broadly from others who could benefit from service).

Americans, in particular but not exclusively, have been fed the myth that "death is defeat" and that one is heroic for "trying everything" when everyone knows it won't work and is causing the individual it's being tried on nothing but longer existence in extremis.

My life experience and professional experience have made me diametrically opposed to the "try everything, whether it's likely to help or not" ethos that some have. You do what's best for the patient, which is sometimes "everything" if full (or close to it) recovery can be reasonably expected, and is sometimes nothing beyond keeping them as comfortable as possible for as long as they've got. And let me tell you, for those who are conscious but intubated, the last thing it is is comfortable! Mind you, it can be worth it if recovery is expected, but I consider it cruelty when it truly cannot be reasonably expected. We're just drawing out suffering (even if it's only to the family of an unconscious patient, by holding out false hope). I could go into my false hope rant, but won't. But the giving of false hope is one of the most psychologically cruel and evil things anyone can do.
 
britechguy said:
I am not belittling either the psychological or other tolls of this pandemic. But we're definitely not acting rationally on the whole, and that does no one any good, either in the short or longer runs.
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There are so many flaws in what's going on it's hard to list them all. One item that seems to get very little coverage is carriers, those who have the virus but never have any meaningful symptoms because their anti-bodies are up to snuff. Given how quickly this has spread I'm beginning to think that there may be many more than people think. Which serves to only lower the risk numbers.

I think that the "throw everything at it" mentality in medicine is a very serious problem. The net result is we now have significantly larger numbers of people who can't survive without the simplest of conveniences such as air conditioning. And the expectation that, irrespective of one's own ways and means, everyone can have truly ridiculous amounts of money spent on a very marginal improvements in lifespan and/or lifestyle.

I watched my Dad's condition deteriorate over the years. Old age of course but the main thing was Parkinson's. The medications did help in the beginning but had less of an effect as the years wore on. In hindsight he stopped taking his medications about 4 months before he passes away. Never discussed it with anyone, I'm sure due to the social stigma of "giving up". But the downside to that is he didn't get the proper care, like a home health aide. Moving around was very difficult and he eventually fell and broke his hip. Due to the miracles of the electronic health care records system we have these days I didn't find out he had broken his hip until 4 days later when they were looking for a payment guarantor for the $75k hip operation.

I'm sure what happened is he finally said enough is enough. The efforts just weren't yielding enough of the rewards anymore. We need more of that, not less, to be able to function as a society.
 
The other four coronaviruses we know about, generate about 37% of cases where no symptoms manifest. SARS-CoV-2 seems to be almost 80%! This has nothing to do with the host's immune response, it's a feature of the virus family in question.

The problem with SARS-CoV-2 is the R0 value of 3. That's over two times more infectious than H1N1.

In the end, when the dust settles we're going to have about 1% of those infected die, that's with medical care deaths without medical care will be 3-5%. In the US, it's estimated somewhere between 40 and 70% will contract this virus in the end. Do that math on that... because 1% of 40% of the entire population is still MILLIONS of people.

That being said, at some point our economy, or I should say lack thereof, is going to start killing MORE than this number. So there will come a time when we have no choice but to get back to work, and deal with constant reports of death.
 
Just got shutdown order from the premier of Ontario for 2 weeks all non-essential businesses have been ordered closed......
Back to my underground bunker and video games.
 
Sky-Knight said:
That being said, at some point our economy, or I should say lack thereof, is going to start killing MORE than this number. So there will come a time when we have no choice but to get back to work, and deal with constant reports of death.
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I actually think that if we have to face this, we could. Death is in the natural order of things.

Shutting down whole countries and economies other than as a short term measure is absolutely not a part of "the natural order of things." When you add to that, at least in the USA, how much less secure jobs in general (including professional ones) have become and the massive rise of The Gig Economy where no one has any safety net the potential for the rise of social unrest cannot be dismissed out of hand.

I dread to say it, but I think that things will get a lot worse, on multiple scales/in multiple arenas, before they begin getting better if the "Stop The World" approach to COVID-19 is not jettisoned for a more surgical approach.

I also think, as others have said, that we already have untold hundreds of millions of people worldwide infected who are and will remain asymptomatic. If that's the case, we need to know that so that we can end the draconian measures. There is no doubt that COVID-19 causes critical illness for more of the population, particularly the elderly and medically frail, than many other pathogens have. But if most of the world already has it, or even a far greater proportion than is now confirmed, we've got nothing to stop that can be stopped via the methods currently being imposed. We need hard data on the actual prevalence of infection and incidence of illness from same.
 
@britechguy Yes, I'd love a test to see if I have the antibody, because my entire family had a cold tear through here in Feb that matched the symptoms of a minor SARS-CoV-2, it'd be nice to confirm that and know... OK... we're done. But I don't know, and I have two people in the house that are likely to have issues so I stay in lock down.

But to bring this back around to our industry, I've slowed on setting up remote access, I'm now starting to process terminations. That trend is going to accelerate... unemployment is already starting to swell. The political situation deteriorates because we have two political parties playing by their old playbooks. The DNC is standing between the middle class and relief right now... Everyone should be asking why? And don't get caught up in the what about's and what if's... another bill can be passed tomorrow with more in it if we need it. The focus on perfect now is first and foremost, stonewalling the bill. Which inverts the reality, and shows they do NOT want a relief bill to pass under Trump.

So yeah, expect things to get worse... buckets worse. We are rudderless in the storm, and the vultures are circling.
 
Galdorf said:
Back to my underground bunker and video games.
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New Zealand will be entering a four-week-plus lockdown from tomorrow, and I suspect that most of the video games I'll be playing will be remote support sessions for locked down clients.

We worked out a while ago that around 80% of our bread-and-butter work can be done remotely, and most of the rest is non-essential. We're prioritising communications over convenience and people are being remarkably calm when we advise them that their problem isn't an emergency and we'll get to it when things are back to a bit more normal.
 
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Computer Bloke said:
. . . people are being remarkably calm when we advise them that their problem isn't an emergency and we'll get to it when things are back to a bit more normal.
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One thing that gives me some hope is that, at least from where I sit, a lot of the irrational panic is beginning to subside as more becomes known. It's transitioning to anything from deep fear to legitimate concern, but people have begun to start thinking again to some extent. Thought and calm tend to go together, particularly when you focus on what you can control rather than what you can't [which is a good approach, generally. Worry about things entirely outside one's control is a waste of physical and emotional energy - and stopping the tendency to "go there" is something that is often learned slowly, and secondary to having to get through life crises of all sorts.]
 
Computer Bloke said:
We worked out a while ago that around 80% of our bread-and-butter work can be done remotely, and most of the rest is non-essential.
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95%+ of my work was already remote work and lately I've been busier than ever setting up remote access for home-workers. What concerns me though is whether the businesses I support will survive this and if I'll ever get paid for any of that work. My biggest customer is a retail business with two large stores. Their monthly wage bill alone is close to a quarter of a million pounds. Over the last week they've had very few customers and have now been told to close. I doubt their businesses will survive much more than a few more weeks.
 
Well i looked at the list my business is classified as essential since i repair the video display systems in banks the cinema is closed though.

List of Essential services:

9. Businesses that supply office products and services, including providing computer products and related repair and maintenance services, for individuals working from home and for essential businesses;

Looks like i can stay open.
Full list:
Below is a list of workplaces deemed essential by the Ontario government:

For the purposes of this order, businesses include any-for-profit, non-profit or other entity providing the goods and services described herein.

This does not preclude the provision of work and services by entities not on this list either online, by telephone or by mail/delivery.

Note that teleworking and online commerce are permitted at all times for all businesses.

Supply chains

1. Businesses that supply other essential businesses or essential services with the support, supplies, systems or services, including processing, packaging, distribution, delivery and maintenance necessary to operate;

Retail and Wholesaling

2. Businesses engaged in the retail and wholesale sale of food, pet food and supplies, and household consumer products necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and essential operations of residences and businesses, including grocery stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, markets and other similar retailers;

3. Businesses that provide essential items for the health and welfare of animals, including feed, animal food, pet food and animal supplies including bedding;

4. Beer, wine and liquor stores and alcohol producers, and stores that sell beer and wine through arrangements with authorized providers; cannabis stores and cannabis producers;

5. Gas stations, diesel, propane and heating fuel providers including providers of motor vehicle, aircraft and water/marine craft fuels;

6. Motor vehicle, auto-supply, auto and motor-vehicle-repair, including bicycle repair, aircraft repair, heavy equipment repair, watercraft/marine craft repairs, car and truck dealerships and related facilities;

7. Hardware stores and stores that provide hardware products necessary to the essential operations of residences and businesses;

8. Business providing pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical services, including pharmacies and dispensaries;

9. Businesses that supply office products and services, including providing computer products and related repair and maintenance services, for individuals working from home and for essential businesses;

10. Safety supply stores (for e.g. work clothes, Personal Protective Equipment);

Food Services and Accommodations

11. Restaurants and other food facilities that prepare and serve food, but only for delivery or takeaway, together with food delivery services;

12. Hotels, motels, shared rental units and similar facilities, including student residences;

Institutional, Residential, Commercial and Industrial Maintenance

13. Businesses that provide support and maintenance services, including urgent repair, to maintain the safety, security, sanitation and essential operation of institutional, commercial industrial and residential properties and buildings, including, property management services,plumbers, electricians, custodial/janitorial workers, cleaning services, , security services, fire safety and sprinkler systems, building systems maintenance and repair technicians and engineers, mechanics, (e.g. HVAC, escalator and elevator technicians), and other service providers who provide similar services

Telecommunications and IT Infrastructure/Service Providers

14. Businesses engaged in providing or supporting Information Technology (IT) including online services, software products and related services, as well as the technical facilities such as data centres and other network facilities necessary for their operation and delivery;

15. Businesses providing telecommunications services (phone, internet, radio, cell phones etc) as well as support facilities such as call centres necessary for their operation and delivery;

Transportation

16. Taxis and other private transportation providers providing transportation services necessary for activities of daily living;

17. Businesses and facilities that provide transportation services to businesses and individuals including by air, water, road, and rail including providing logistical support, distribution services, warehousing and storage, including truck stops and tow operators;


18. Businesses that provide materials and services for the operation, maintenance and safety of transportation systems (road, transit, rail, air and marine) including delivery of maintenance services such as clearing snow, response to collisions, and completing needed repairs to the transportation systems.

Manufacturing and Production

19. Businesses that extract, manufacture, process and distribute goods, products, equipment and materials, including businesses that manufacture inputs to other manufacturers (e.g. primary metal/ steel, blow molding, component manufacturers, chemicals, etc. that feed the end-product manufacturer);

20. Businesses, facilities and services that support and facilitate the two- way movement of essential goods within integrated North American and Global supply chains.

Agriculture and food production

21. Businesses that farm, harvest, process, manufacture, produce or distribute food, including beverages, crops, animal products and by-products, aquaculture, hunting and fishing;

22. Businesses that support the food supply chain including assembly yards, livestock auctions, food distribution hubs, feed mills, farm equipment suppliers, feed suppliers, food terminals and warehouses, animal slaughter plants and grain elevators;

23. Business that support the safety of food including animal and plant health and animal welfare;

24. Businesses that provide veterinary services, and that supply veterinary and animal control medications and related supplies and testing kits;

25. Businesses that help to ensure safe and effective waste management including deadstock, rendering, nutrient management, bio hazardous materials, green waste, packaging recycling;

Construction

26. Construction projects and services associated with the healthcare sector, including new facilities, expansions, renovations and conversion of spaces that could be repurposed for health care space;

27. Construction projects and services required to ensure safe and reliable operations of critical provincial infrastructure, including transit, transportation, energy and justice sectors beyond the day-to-day maintenance;

28. Construction work and services, including demolition services, in the industrial, commercial, institutional and residential sectors;

29. Construction work and services that supports health and safety environmental rehabilitation projects

Financial activities

30. Capital markets (e.g., the TSX);

31. Banking & Activities related to Credit Intermediation; credit unions;

32. Insurance;

33. Businesses that provide pension services and employee benefits services;

34. Businesses that provide financial services including payment processing, the payroll division of any employer (as defined by the Employment Standards Act/Occupational Health and Safety Act), any entity whose operation is the administration of payroll, banks and credit unions;

Resources

35. Businesses that ensure global continuity of supply of mining materials and products (e.g. metals such as copper, nickel and gold) and that support supply chains in Northern Ontario including;

a. Mining operations, production and processing;

b. Mineral exploration and development;

c. Mining Supply and Services that support supply chains in the mining industry including maintenance of operations, health and safety.

36. Businesses that provide chemicals and gases to support the natural resource sector analytical labs and drinking water and wastewater sectors and other essential businesses;

37. Businesses that ensure global continuity of supply of forestry products (e.g. lumber, pulp, paper, wood fuel, etc.);

38. Businesses that ensure global continuity of supply of aggregates to support critical infrastructure repairs and emergency response requirements (e.g. sandbags, armour stone barriers, etc.);

39. Businesses that ensure global continuity of supply of petroleum and petroleum by-products;

Environmental Services

40. Businesses that support environmental management/monitoring and spill clean-up and response, including environmental consulting firms, professional engineers and geoscientists, septics haulers, well drillers, pesticides applicators and exterminators, management of industrial sewage/effluent (eg for mining operations), and environmental laboratories;

Utilities and Community Services

41. Utilities, and Businesses that support the provision of utilities and community services, including by providing products, materials and services needed for the delivery of utilities and community services:

a. Waste Collection, Waste/ Sewage Treatment and Disposal, operation of landfills, and Hazardous Waste Disposal;

b. Potable drinking water;

c. Electricity Generation, transmission, distribution and storage;

d. Natural Gas distribution, transmission and storage,

e. Road construction and maintenance;

f. police, fire, emergency services including coroner services and pathology services ;

g. corrections and courts services;

h. other government services including licenses and permits;

42. Businesses engaged in or supporting the operation, maintenance and repair of critical infrastructure (railways, dams, bridges, highways, erosion control structures, etc.);

Communications Industries

43. Newspaper publishers;

44. Radio & Television Broadcasting;

45. Telecommunications providers;

Research

46. Businesses and organizations that maintain research facilities and engage in research, including medical research and other research and development activities;

47. Businesses that provide products and services that support research activities;

Health Care and Seniors Care and Social Services

48. Organizations and providers that deliver home care services;

49. Retirement homes;

50. Long-term Care Facilities;

51. Independent health facilities;

52. Laboratories and specimen collection centres;

53. Manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and retailers of pharmaceutical products and medical supplies, including medications, medical isotopes, vaccines and antivirals; medical devices and medical supplies

54. Manufacturers, logistics and distributors of products and/or services that support the delivery of health care in all locations (including but not limited to hospitals, labs, long-term care homes, other residential health care, physicians, nurse practitioners and midwives, and home care services);

55. Businesses that provide products and/or services that support the health sector or that provide health services, including mental health and addictions and counselling supports.

56. Businesses that sell, rent or repair assistive/mobility/medical devices, aids and/or supplies.

57. Businesses that provide personal support services (many seniors and persons with disabilities, who can afford to, hire individuals to assist with the activities of daily living).

58. Health care professionals providing emergency care including dentists optometrists and physio-therapists;

59. Not-for-profit organizations that provide critical personal support services in home and also provide residential services for individuals with physical disabilities (such as the Centre for Independent Living and March of Dimes);

60. Businesses and all other organizations that support the provision of food, shelter, safety or protection, and/or social services and other necessities of life to economically disadvantaged and other vulnerable individuals, including but not limited to food banks, violence against women emergency shelters, homeless shelters, community housing, supportive housing, children's aid societies, residential services for adults with developmental disabilities and for children, and custody and detention programs for young persons in conflict with the law;

Justice Sector

61. Professional and social services that support the legal and justice system;

Other Businesses

62. Rental and leasing services, including automobile, commercial and light industrial machinery and equipment rental;

63. Businesses providing mailing, shipping, courier and delivery services, including post office boxes;

64. Laundromats, dry cleaners and laundry service providers;

65. Professional services including lawyers and para-legals, engineers, accountants, translators;

66. Businesses providing funeral, mortician, cremation, transfer, and burial services, and any related goods and products (such as coffins and embalming fluid);

67. Land registration services, and real estate agent services and moving services;

68. Businesses providing security services including private security guards; monitoring or surveillance equipment and services;

69. Businesses providing staffing services, including temporary help;

70. Businesses that support the safe operations of residences and essential businesses;

71. Businesses that provide for the health and welfare of animals, including veterinarians, farms, boarding kennels, stables, animal shelters, zoos, aquariums, research facilities and other service providers;

72. Child care services for essential workers, and home child care services of less than six children;

73. Businesses providing cheque cashing services;

Business Regulators and Inspectors

74. Organizations, including Administrative Authorities, that regulate and inspect businesses.


LoL only thing that has to close are malls and food courts stores that sell clothes, games,toys,shoes nail salons,hair salons and dollar stores ,music and music instrument stores, Pawn shops everything else stays open beer stores are considered Essential lol.

Seem after looking for lunch most food places are closed now like Harveys, Cortina Pizza ect. the places they say could stay open are closed even though they had take-out only.
 
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