It will be forced, people are expecting Microsoft to blink... they won't.
Windows is a marketplace to deliver M365 services, which is where their money comes from. Every time something happens, they get hit with legal action from hordes of people. They're DONE playing games, and they're done holding the bag. The world has decided they are the bad guy, so they are playing the part.
And for once... I can't even blame them. Microsoft tells people what they need to do to be supported going forward, then we have ecosystems of idiots running around to subvert the process. The scheduled time has been set, it's not going to move, ESUs are available but only if you're licensed for them, ESU is VERY expensive for SMB / home users. (They don't have a Windows license compatible for one)
Any and all upgrade paths for all other platforms include the TPM or a functional equivalent.
All of this compresses into a very simple reality, upgrade or die. And I for one cannot wait, because I'm done watching my customer's money vanish into the hands of fraudsters. It's time to put Windows 10 to bed, just like it was time to put XP and 7 to bed. Their time has passed, we've moved on for a reason. There are zero legitimate reasons left to not upgrade.